SpaceX's Timeline

Note: This is ported content from my previous blog. It may appear in a format different than intended. It is also from a version of myself that was younger and dumber. I like to keep this content around for posterity.

As many who are interested in astronomy know, space exploration often take a LONG time. There are countless challenges to space exploration, and we are only just beginning to take our baby steps out into the Universe. But today I heard SpaceX is going to start testing the BFR, which shocked me. I didn’t know they were already so far along on their Mars-bound plans. I always considered their goals a little extreme, but they seem to be meeting their targets. Which begs the question- Is the timeline SpaceX set for themselves reasonable? And if it’s not, when could we see them landing on Mars?

Well, SpaceX says on their website that they plan to reach Mars in 2022 for a cargo flight and send a manned crew to Mars by 2024. Right off the bat, this sounds ridiculous to me. NASA has the 2030’s pegged as a “maybe” for Mars. But one must remember, NASA is a government agency, subject to the will of taxpayers and politicials, and their agenda will obviously lag behind SpaceX’s, since space exploration isn’t on the general public’s mind at all (I might write about this later).

However, let’s look to see how SpaceX has met previous deadlines. According to this article by The New York Times, some major landmarks SpaceX met in the past include their first successful launch in 2008 (after three failures), their transition to the Falcon 9 with the Dragon capsule in 2010, their dock to the ISS for the first time in May 2012, and their launch of the Falcon Heavy this year in February. In ten years, SpaceX went from a fledgling private space company to a rival of NASA (that just goes to show you what private enterprise can achieve). After a multitude of successful launches and upgrading their rocket multiple times, they are making huge headway in the space industry. Heck, they even landed a rocket on an aircraft carrier!

spacex-82137-unsplash

Photo by SpaceX on Unsplash

I don’t know if I’m being too enthusiastic but, all things considered, I don’t think SpaceX’s timeline is that aggressive! I Their rate of development is swift, and I can see them deploying cargo missions to Mars with the BFR by 2024, two years after what their timeline says, and getting the first men on Mars by 2026 or 2027 (it sounds like a long time from now but that is incredible!). So, even with such an ambitious goal, SpaceX is only barely not going to meet it, which is technically meeting it in space standards.

This argument only regards their rocket development schedule though, the actual health issues of locking someone on a confined spaceship for months in an irradiated environment is still a big problem. That is the bigger problem for SpaceX, but we’ll see how they overcome it.

Sources

Title Image by SpaceX on Unsplash
Mike Brown. SpaceX’s Mars-Bound BFR Tests Nearly Here as Final Tank Delivered. Inverse.
Mars. SpaceX.
Johnathan Corum. Timeline of SpaceX Missions. The New York Times.
Aircraft Carrier Landing by SpaceX on Unsplash

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